Thursday, August 9, 2007

Australia's interest rate

There is no question that the Australian market is expensive. Almost every single company trade at high-teen earnings multiple and the valuation has been often justified on the back on continuos demand for equity investments from super-annuation fund flows. What's next?

Inflation looks relatively in check but interest is going up and is now at 11-year high of 6.5%. If interest rate continues to go up, I am not optimistic on the macro. Australia has been in a multi-year boom supported by rising real estate prices. With many mortgages based on variable rate and a mindset accustomed to rising real estate prices, rising interest rate will affect both and probably combines to produce a double whammy. Once the market is more expensive, would be a good time to short some of the more expensive and lower quality stocks.

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