There is no question that the Australian market is expensive. Almost every single company trade at high-teen earnings multiple and the valuation has been often justified on the back on continuos demand for equity investments from super-annuation fund flows. What's next?
Inflation looks relatively in check but interest is going up and is now at 11-year high of 6.5%. If interest rate continues to go up, I am not optimistic on the macro. Australia has been in a multi-year boom supported by rising real estate prices. With many mortgages based on variable rate and a mindset accustomed to rising real estate prices, rising interest rate will affect both and probably combines to produce a double whammy. Once the market is more expensive, would be a good time to short some of the more expensive and lower quality stocks.
Showing posts with label Australia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Australia. Show all posts
Thursday, August 9, 2007
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